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Bài viết của Đào Nguyên

Khai mạc Triển lãm Quốc tế Vietbuild Hà Nội 2014

Ngày 26/3, tại Hà Nội đã diễn ra Lễ khai mạc Triển lãm Quốc tế Vietbuild Hà Nội 2014 lần thứ nhất. Thứ trưởng Bộ Xây dựng Nguyễn Trần Nam dự lễ và cắt băng khai mạc triển lãm.

Chuyện sẽ không là gì nếu thông tin giảm giá gắn liền với một cái tên khác và trước đây không có sự so sánh giữa chuyện Hoàng Anh Gia Lai giảm giá căn hộ Thanh Bình (quận 7) với sự kiên định của Sunrise City.

Nó cũng giống như người nổi tiếng, niềm vui của họ là thương hiệu, là đẳng cấp nhưng nỗi khổ của họ cũng từ danh tiếng mà ra; nhất cử nhất động đều bị nhòm ngó, chỉ được ở trên cao, không được tuột dốc… Khi thông tin giảm giá của Phát Đạt và Novaland được tung ra, hàng loạt nguyên nhân được đặt trên bàn cân, nổi bật hơn hết là lý do bổ sung tiền mặt.

Đây là căn bệnh trầm kha của các nhà phát triển BĐS Việt Nam hiện nay. Nói như các chuyên gia kinh tế, không ít chủ đầu tư chỉ có 1 – 2 đồng nhưng lại “bạo gan” xây dự án 10 đồng, khi thị trường ổn định thì bình yên; ngược lại, bất kỳ sự biến động nào cũng làm họ “rung lắc”.

Nhìn lại hiện tượng giảm giá căn hộ (tạm gọi là cao cấp), có thể thấy, khi bước vào cuộc suy thoái kinh tế kéo dài từ năm 2008, “giảm giá” xẩy ra đều đặn với điểm khởi đầu là vào tháng 3/2009, Hoàng Anh Gia Lai tuyên bố giảm 40% giá bán (so với giá công bố quý I/2008) tại dự án Phú Hoàng Anh (quận 7) và RiverView (quận 2).

Hiệu ứng này lan tỏa sang nhiều dự án khác, có thể kể đến như: Hoàng Anh An Tiến (quận 7); Riverside Garden (quận Thủ Đức, do Công ty Xây dựng và Phát triển Nhà Thành Trường Lộc làm chủ đầu tư, giảm từ 2.000 – 2.500 USD/m2 còn 1.000 – 1.150 USD/m2 thời điểm năm 2009); Blooming Park (nay là Imperia An Phú, quận 2); Lacasa (quận 7)… và nay là Sunrise City – giai đoạn 3 và The EverRich 3 (quận 7).

Đây là những dự án có sự giảm giá khá rõ nét, trong khi nhiều dự án khác lại áp dụng hình thức chiết khấu tùy vào phương thích thanh toán của khách hàng.

Bên cạnh vấn đề giải quyết tiền mặt, theo ông Trương An Dương, Trưởng phòng Nghiên cứu Savills Việt Nam, kể từ khoảng thời gian cuối năm 2008 đầu năm 2009, giá trung bình căn hộ toàn thị trường bao gồm cả các dự án mới, đã giảm khoảng 21%, từ khoảng 1.400 USD/m2 xuống còn 1.100 USD/m2.

Nếu không bao gồm các dự án mới, giá trung bình căn hộ toàn thị trường chỉ giảm khoảng 13%. Điều này cho thấy, giá giảm do sự gia nhập và ảnh hưởng của các dự án mới cũng như các đợt bán hàng tiếp theo của những dự án hiện hữu ở từng thời điểm.

Tình trạng này cũng giống như ở Thái Lan trước đây, giá căn hộ cao cấp tại Bangkok đã bị kéo giảm vào năm 2010 khi thị trường đã dung nạp thêm nhiều dự án nhà trung bình.


Hiện tại,có 8 dự án đang chào bán trên phân khúc hạng A, với tổng quy mô của các dự án này là gần 3.200 căn hộ, trong đó có khoảng 1.400 căn hộ chưa bán hết và đang được chào bán trên thị trường sơ cấp. (Nguồn: Savills Việt Nam).

Trước hiện tượng giảm giá, dĩ nhiên sẽ có nhiều nghi vấn được đặt ra như chất lượng công trình ra sao? Liệu chủ đầu tư có chịu thiệt? Đây có phải là mức giá thực sự của dự án hay không?… Liên quan đến vấn đề giảm giá bán căn hộ cao cấp, GS. Đặng Hùng Võ từng bày tỏ quan điểm: Nói đến “đáy” là phải nói đến căn hộ cao cấp.

Mức giá giảm này vẫn chưa đến “đáy” vì nhà cao cấp là một phần góp vốn từ các nhà đầu tư thứ cấp, một phần từ ngân hàng và một phần từ chủ đầu tư dự án (phần này không nhiều). Ở khu vực phía Bắc, phần vốn góp của nhà đầu tư nhỏ lẻ chiếm 70% và nhà băng là 30%; trong khi phía Nam thì ngược lại.

“Chủ đầu tư đã nhận vốn góp, tức giá trị dự án và rủi ro đã chia đều cho các bên tham gia. Do đó, họ chưa vội vàng giảm đến đáy vì họ không bị áp lực bởi thị trường. Chính vì vậy, ở một số lượng lớn dự án chưa có dự án giảm đến đáy, thậm chí giảm nhưng họ vẫn còn một phần lời là dự phòng rủi ro”, GS. Võ nói.

Tuy nhiên, nhận định này chỉ đúng khi chủ đầu tư là người có năng lực tài chính mạnh. Trong thời gian qua, nhiều doanh nghiệp BĐS phía Nam đã chịu sức ép lớn về mức độ hấp thụ nhà ở giảm mạnh, đặc biệt ở phân khúc nhà giá cao.

Kể cả đến thời điểm này, dù nguồn cung của căn hộ cao cấp được khống chế so với nhà trung bình và giá thấp nhưng thực tế, lượng tiêu thụ vẫn không cao.

Thống kê của Savills Việt Nam cho thấy, trong quý II/2013, giao dịch chủ yếu trên thị trường Tp.HCM là căn hộ hạng C với giá dao động từ 10 – 15 triệu đồng/m2.

Trong khi đó, sức ép từ lãi vay cũng khiến không ít doanh nghiệp phải đau đầu, chi phí tài chính đã ăn mòn vào lợi nhuận của họ, điển hình như trường hợp của Quốc Cường Gia Lai, nợ đã khiến doanh nghiệp này… bỗng dưng nổi tiếng trong những tháng đầu năm 2013.

Vậy, vấn đề là sau các đợt giảm giá lớn, chủ đầu tư hay người mua được lợi? Rõ ràng, đây là câu hỏi chỉ doanh nghiệp mới biết đáp án chính xác, vì nó liên quan mật thiết đến cam kết của doanh nghiệp với khách hàng, đến bài toán quản lý dự án (tác động trực tiếp đến chi phí xây dựng).

Hiện tại,có 8 dự án đang chào bán trên phân khúc hạng A, với tổng quy mô của các dự án này là gần 3.200 căn hộ, trong đó có khoảng 1.400 căn hộ chưa bán hết và đang được chào bán trên thị trường sơ cấp. (Nguồn: Savills Việt Nam)

Như trường hợp dự án Blooming Park (thời Công ty Quản lý Quỹ đầu tư Prudential Việt Nam chưa là cổ đông), động thái giảm giá bán và tặng thêm các gói nội thất trong các đợt bán sau khi công bố năm 2009 đã được giới phân tích dự án đánh giá là không ảnh hưởng mạnh đến chủ đầu tư.

Bởi hợp đồng xây dựng của Blooming Park là tổng thầu, với Byucksan E&C (một trong năm nhà thầu nổi tiếng của Hàn Quốc) vừa là nhà thầu chính, vừa là cổ đông của dự án (thuộc Công ty Inveskia – Liên doanh với Kiến Á). Do đó, họ có thể kiểm soát tốt chi phí.

Ngoài ra, phía chủ đầu tư vẫn có thể kiểm soát tốt chi phí và không bị lỗ nặng nếu như họ ký hợp đồng theo tiến độ công trình và chia theo từng gói (nhà thầu xây phần móng, phần thô, hoàn thiện…).

Do đó, giảm giá “khủng” chỉ thực sự gây ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng nếu sản phẩm của dự án đã được bán cho khách hàng (khi đó, chủ đầu tư sẽ bị ràng buộc về cam kết tiến độ hoàn thành).

Chủ đầu tư ký hợp đồng tổng thầu xây dựng và vay vốn từ ngân hàng để phát triển dự án. Ở đây, chủ đầu tư chấp nhận giảm giá, chịu lỗ để khơi đầu ra cho dự án nhằm huy động vốn từ khách hàng.

Cuộc chơi của người có lực

Theo ông Cao Thanh Hoàng, Tổng giám đốc Công ty Quản lý Quỹ KHM Capital, việc giảm giá hiện nay chủ yếu để giải quyết vấn đề tiền mặt cho chủ đầu tư. Ở thời điểm này, quyết định giảm giá 50% là điều bất khả kháng nhưng lại mang tính khả thi cao vì nếu bán toàn bộ dự án sẽ không dễ dàng.

Đứng ở góc độ nhà đầu tư, ông Hoàng cho rằng, tiêu chuẩn đầu tiên của những người đi mua dự án là đầu ra của dự án. Nếu mua một dự án có sản phẩm được thị trường hấp thụ tốt thì nhà đầu tư không ngại bỏ tiền.

Điều này cũng có thể tạm chấp nhận với những dự án có thể bán được trong vòng 1 – 2 năm tới, nhưng những dự án, đặc biệt là căn hộ hạn chế về đầu ra thì rất khó để các nhà đầu tư đưa ra quyết định.

Sau đợt giảm giá sâu mà Novaland và Phát Đạt công bố, liệu rằng thị trường sẽ bị hiệu ứng domino, đặc biệt là trong phân khúc nhà ở cao cấp? Trao đổi với phía Keppel Land, chủ đầu tư dự án The Estella, chủ đầu tư cho biết, họ sẽ không giảm giá bán căn hộ này lẫn dự án căn hộ Riviera Point đang xây dựng ở quận 7 (nằm đối diện với dự án đất nền The EverRich 3).

Thông tin từ Keppel Land cho thấy, sở dĩ họ không giảm giá bán vì họ giữ vững cam kết với khách hàng về tiến độ xây dựng (như dự án Riviera Point). Đồng thời, khi bán sản phẩm căn hộ, họ không thu thêm bất kỳ các khoản phí từ việc sử dụng các tiện ích sau khi dự án hoàn thành và đưa vào sử dụng, cụ thể là dự án The Esetella (quận 2).

Theo phân tích của chủ đầu tư, cư dân của dự án The Estella sẽ được thụ hưởng miễn phí các dịch vụ cộng thêm như: hồ bơi, phòng tập thể dục… Hiện, đã có 400 căn tại dự án được cư dân khai thác. Đến tháng 10 này, dự án sẽ đạt 50% số dân chuyển vào và đủ điều kiện để thành lập ban quản trị chung cư.

Phía chủ đầu tư cam kết, trong năm đầu tiên dự án đi vào sử dụng, họ sẽ hỗ trợ việc tìm khách thuê cho các diện tích thương mại dưới tầng trệt, ban quản trị chung cư có trách nhiệm tìm khách thuê cho những năm sau đó. Thêm vào đó, ban quản trị sẽ tìm và chỉ định công ty quản lý tòa nhà.

Đồng thời sẽ mở tài khoản riêng để quản lý 2% phí quản lý mà cư dân đóng, tiền cho thuê các khu vực thương mại (hiện nay là cà phê Terrace, siêu thị mini…). Số tiền này sẽ được dùng để bảo quản chung cư.

Ông Cao Thanh Hoàng cũng nhận định, các nhà đầu tư ngoại có “bề dày” hoạt động tại Việt Nam, chắc chắn sẽ không giảm giá lớn vì năng lực tài chính của họ được đảm bảo từ phía công ty mẹ.

Nếu không huy động được tiền từ khách hàng, họ vẫn tiếp tục triển khai dự án vì “thói quen” của họ đã được hình thành từ chính thị trường nội địa của họ là xây nhà xong rồi bán.

Thậm chí, trước đây, ngay tại trục đường Lê Đại Hành (quận 11), dự án The Flemington của Công ty CP Bảo Gia (thuộc Tập đoàn Bảo Gia của Đài Loan) từng gây chú ý trên thị trường BĐS tại Tp.HCM khi hoàn thành dự án, ra sổ hồng trước khi bán sản phẩm ra thị trường.

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